According to Reuters data, Brent crude futures pared their losses, which had exceeded 5% during the session, after breaking the $100 per barrel mark in the previous session for the first time since May.
Navigation Tensions: Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab In Focus
Oil prices rose during the week against the backdrop of an exchange of missile strikes between the United States and Iran, a decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
US and Iranian Threats: US President Donald Trump vowed "severe military punishment" in response to the targeting of oil tankers. In contrast, Tehran urged its allies to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait (the world's second most important corridor for oil shipments) if Washington continues targeting Iranian electricity infrastructure.
Ship Movements (Kpler Data): Navigation tracking showed only 3 ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz daily over the past three days, while the Bab al-Mandab Strait saw 32 ships cross on Thursday (up from 26 ships the previous day).
Analytical Reading: Will a Barrel of Oil Reach $114?
Economic analysts' views on the future of energy markets vary in light of these complex circumstances:
JPMorgan: The bank's analysts indicated that every additional month of supply disruption would add between $7 and $8 to a barrel of Brent, which could push the monthly average price to $114 if the crisis continues for three months.
Price Futures Group: Senior analyst Phil Flynn warned of instability, stressing that overall inventories are extremely low, which could suddenly change the market situation.
UBS: Analyst Giovanni Staunovo explained that ships are still moving in the appropriate shipping lanes, confirming the absence of a "complete blockade" on navigation as was initially feared.
Repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Energy Supplies
Away from the Middle East, the conflict in Eastern Europe continues to pressure energy markets:
Targeting Ports: Russia announced the targeting of 3 Ukrainian ports overnight, with strikes hitting infrastructure that includes loading and unloading facilities as well as fuel reserves.
Decline in Production in Kazakhstan: The Kazakh Energy Ministry announced that oil companies have temporarily reduced their production following attacks (suspected to be Ukrainian) that caused the closure of the country's main export terminal on the Black Sea.
