Economic analysts have raised their average Brent crude price forecast to $92.88 for 2026, driven by energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over a market deficit.
Experts and economic analysts have revised their global oil price estimates upward for 2026, forecasting that the average price of Brent crude will cross the $90 per barrel threshold for the first time since last May. This shift comes against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks and worsening energy supply chain disruptions in the Middle East.
Expert Survey: Expected Surge in Brent and WTI Averages
A recent survey of 32 experts and economic analysts reveals a bullish shift in the outlook for oil markets during 2026 compared to the previous month's estimates:
Brent Crude: Average price estimates surged to $92.88 per barrel, up from $89.05 in previous forecasts.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): The expected average price rose to $86.60 per barrel, up from $83.90 previously.
Commodity market experts, including analysts at UniCredit, note that persistent inventory drawdowns and shipping constraints are delaying the timeline for supply flows to return to normal levels, reinforcing upside risks for prices in the short to medium term.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Threats to Energy Flows
Pressures on oil supply stem from the fallout of regional conflict and escalating security tensions, which have cast a direct shadow over vital waterways:
Strait of Hormuz in the Spotlight: The strait, historically responsible for the transit of roughly 20% of global oil supplies, has seen a sharp escalation in attacks targeting commercial ships and tankers, registering a record high in maritime security incidents.
Exceptional Price Premiums: Physical markets reflected supply tightness, with key grades such as North Sea Forties trading at near-record premiums relative to Dated Brent.
Backwardation Structure in Futures: Short-term contracts continued to trade at higher prices than longer-term futures—a price structure that signals an acute deficit in immediate supply relative to demand.
Demand Pressures and Supply Deficit Expectations
Conversely, elevated prices are taking a toll on consumption rates and economic growth:
HSBC estimates a decline in global demand of approximately 5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of the year, with the heaviest impact felt in developing and low-income economies.
Estimates point to an overall demand drop of around 2.5 million barrels per day during 2026, before rebounding by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2027.
Despite contracting demand, the survey indicates a tangible market supply deficit of around 2.7 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of 2026, before potentially shifting to a slight surplus of roughly 290,000 barrels per day by 2027 if Gulf flows recover.
OPEC+ Stance and Production Policy
Regarding institutional supply, analyst estimates suggest that the OPEC+ alliance is unlikely to make radical changes to its current production policy in the near term. Key nations within the alliance are expected to maintain their target production levels for December without modification to keep the market balanced and curb price volatility.
