The federal government in Baghdad has pledged to take decisive measures to end the deployment of armed Iranian Kurdish groups stationed inside Iraqi territory—groups that Tehran has long viewed as tools serving international and regional efforts to destabilize its internal regime.
A Security Agreement and Potential Logistical Arrangements Iranian authorities confirmed reaching bilateral understandings with the Iraqi side, granting Baghdad's security apparatus a mandate to handle the file of these organizations and neutralize their activities. Conversely, local press reports suggest that Baghdad’s plan may not entail their ultimate expulsion from the country, but rather a geographic repositioning by relocating military headquarters deeper into the Iraqi interior, including proposals to move them closer to the Saudi border.
Dimensions of the Field and Political Situation (An Analytical Reading) In his analysis of the crisis's trajectory,Middle East expert Anton Mardasov highlighted the key determinants governing the implementation of these pledges:
Iranian Pressure Signals: Tehran's official statements may not reflect a fully finalized agreement; instead, they serve as psychological and political leverage preceding potential targeted military strikes should compliance fail.
The Power Dynamic Between Baghdad and Erbil: Despite the growing influence of Tehran-aligned factions within Baghdad's security decision-making structures, executive capability on the ground inside the Kurdistan Region remains under the de facto control of the Erbil government, which views the presence of these forces as leverage and regional balancing buffers.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: The central government is keen to avoid complete and overt alignment with Iranian conditions, preserving the critical equilibrium in its complex web of relations with active regional powers.
The Most Probable Scenario Security experts suggest Baghdad is likely to pursue phased solutions centered on moving these factions away from the immediate border strip and partially disarming them of heavy and medium weaponry. This approach aims to achieve military de-escalation without getting drawn into a complex and sweeping security confrontation within the Kurdistan Region.
