The head of the "Future Iraq" Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations, Manar Al-Obaidi, emphasized that the results of the recent census present Iraq with a massive economic and social challenge that may outweigh the burdens of the budget and fluctuating oil revenues. He stressed that the issue goes beyond mere demographic growth, extending to the national economy's ability to transform this human capital into an effective productive force.
Analytical Review of the Census Figures Iraq conducted a general population census in February 2025, with official results revealing that the country's population has reached 46.118 million (compared to the preliminary results announced in November 2025, which stood at 45.407 million).
In this context, Al-Obaidi pointed out two fundamental facts highlighted by the numbers:
Population Growth: Iraq's population is increasing by approximately one million people or more annually.
Age Structure: Individuals under the age of 25 make up more than 44% of the population (nearly 20 million people), compared to about 26 million in older age groups. This indicates that a vast segment of the population is either preparing to enter the labor market or has already begun searching for opportunities within it.
The Unemployment Equation and Labor Market Realities The economist explained that new entrants to the labor market are estimated at about 500,000 individuals annually, in addition to an existing pool of over 1.5 million unemployed people, with the highest concentration among the youth.
Al-Obaidi argued that targeting one million new jobs annually is a justified goal that balances absorbing new entrants with reducing the existing unemployment pool over three to four years. He warned that merely accommodating new entrants would leave current unemployment rates stagnant, turning them into a permanent social burden.
An Investment Roadmap: Major Projects and the Economic Multiplier Al-Obaidi emphasized that this goal cannot be achieved through small projects alone, as they rely on pre-existing demand and employ limited numbers. Instead, the equation requires a foundation of major strategic projects around which a vast network of medium, small, and micro-enterprises can develop.
Direct Strategic Projects: Targeting the establishment of 100 to 150 strategic projects annually in the energy, oil, water, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors, providing direct employment for 100,000 to 150,000 workers.
The Job Economic Multiplier: Comparative experiences show that every direct job in a large productive project generates between 3 to 5 indirect jobs in its vicinity (such as fodder, packaging, cooling, transportation, and support services). This means that 150 projects could stimulate between 400,000 and 750,000 additional job opportunities.
The Role of the State, the Private Sector, and the Distribution of Development The economist estimated the cost of creating a single productive job in the industrial and agricultural sectors at between $20,000 and $50,000 (averaging $30,000). Consequently, achieving the one-million-job target requires an annual investment of approximately $30 billion (about 40 trillion dinars)—a figure that exceeds the investment budget even in its best years.
Al-Obaidi stressed that this leads to a decisive conclusion: the state cannot be the primary financier. Instead, its role must be limited to creating an attractive investment environment for domestic and foreign private capital. He concluded by affirming the importance of directing these projects toward new areas outside congested urban centers, allowing integrated residential and service communities to grow around them and alleviate the pressure on major cities.
